Being on this planet for a large portion of the population = Not very pleasant=need to escape reality= desperation=drug use!!!
Their final comments were wonderfully positive...changes coming well within the lifetime of this readership!
Nice article as usual Patrick I personally have never used drugs like marijuana and others though I'm not sure I can say I wouldn't try them as far as booze goes I'm not much of a drinker and I don't like the headaches and vomiting that come with being drunk so anyway thanks again Patrick and tc
You aren't missing a thing. A drink or two once a week is plenty.
'More belonging, less work, less travel, and more family gathering..." I know this is coming, as foretold by the GAG on the interruption of oil supply restricting long-distance transportation of goods and people. Then the world will get much larger and people activity confined locally.
No more jetting around the world to see friends, family and places. No more coffee from Jamaica, whiskey from Scotland, wine from France, chocolate from Belgium, etc. Forget about iPhones and sneakers from China, or even garment from Mexico. And of course, no importation of oil, when the US is 50% dependent on foreign oil. Not even salmon from Alaska, if you live in California.
This agrarian paradise is not my idea of a good living. I am a proud citizen of the age of metropolis, even if there are major crime and drug problems in some localities.
Creature comfort aside, I am uncomfortable with this idea of 'going local', because it also sounds 'conformity' to me. I gather the pressure of conformity is also the cause of a lot of drug problem in the Bible Belt, as not everyone there is cut out for the American churches.
Many will need new employment, as there will be no need for airline employees, soldiers, or tour guides. Perhaps they can learn how to repair toasters and mobile phones.
I hope this will not materialise before the expiration of my short remaining lifespan.
The USA now exports crude oil and has exported refined products for years. What little crude oil is imported comes from producers who also own the refining capacity, such as Saudi Arabia.
It is almost 40 years that US has been a consistent importer of Oil.
This is the situation as of 2016
Sure, US DO export oil product (mostly refined) but it imports almost double the size of what is exporting, so being a net importer.
Every single projection scenario don't see (barring a major economical downturn) the USA being a net exporter. Most of them, see the percentage of imported product squeezing a little and then expanding, as the shale oil bubble will burst.
To be more accurate, this graph shows that US has never been a petroleum net exporting country , at least from 1948 till now
Notice that to be a net exporter, the green line (net imports) has to be at or below zero
Crude oil was prohibited from being exported from the USA for many decades. The US Congress recently changed this regulation and crude oil has recently begun to be exported but continues to be brought in from Canada and by Saudi Arabia, who own significant refining capacity, using it to maintain market share.
Most exports go to Mexico, which has a shortfall in refining capacity but sufficent indigenous crude production.
The USA is now self sufficient in crude oil but contnues to import, principally from Canada based on price. Alberta almost floats on oil and gas and is an efficient, thus less expensive supplier. Plus, Canadians are reliable, dependable business people. Venezuela no longer is.
There is so much crude oil around the world now that system capacity (transport & storage) is the constraint to higher production. If materially larger tanking & ship transport capapcity were added, thr price might drop even more. This is a problem for investors in such infrastructure, who would realize thin returns and therefore are not increasing this component of the system.
Over the not-too-distant future, this will all become moot.
sure, the 40 years old ban on oil export in USA has been lifted recently, but do you know the reason for the ban being put in place?
Surely, not to preserve US local oilfields ;)
The ban was put in place in the wake of the oil embargo put by OPEC in early 70' , and was made to prevent oil being sent overseas on account of skyrocketing prices at the time.
But USA is not awash in oil. Or, better said, in cheap-to-extract oil. The recent surge in oil production (fracking) is basically a financial bubble: the fraacking oil is light (so not very much byproducts can be extracted) and also very costrly to extract.
We should, at this point, take a break and have a look on the EROEI (Energy Returned On Energy Invested) concept, to better understand that fracking oil is a really poor business.
Fracking oil is plagued mainly by two problems: High cost of extraction (as said before) and high rate of depletion at the well head. Old fashioned oil wells had a life cycle (from primary to terthiary extraction) of about 40 years.
Fracking wells have a life span of about 3-5 years. So to maintain the production levels, oil producers have to frantically drill hundreds of new well each year.
COmbining this whit the hig cost of drilling such wells (the hydrailic fracture equipment needed for fracking is costly) we have a humongous combined cost. No surprise that fracking companies are sistematically in the red ink in the last 5-6 years.
This all lead to the poor EROEI score of this business: the energy translated capitals needed to keep the buniness running is barely compensated by the energy extracted in the form of oil. THis valeue is a number, that some experts put in the 2-4 range.
COnsider that oil business was used to have this value in the range of 20-30 (it was over 100 in the initial stages, when you had simply to drill a hole some dozens meters deep in oklahoma).
Add over this, the current deflation in oil prices, mainly driven by the current debt-driven deflationary secular cycle.
It is a safe bet to say that the frasking compartment is a bubble that will burst sooner or later.
here for your consideration I put a recent article that describes the updated situation
So, you are right, at the end: USA is awas in oil.
The problem is, this is oil that is (and probabili will ever be) too costly to be used to improve USA (let alone world) economy.
Only a breackthrough in really cheap energy production using some other mean can subsidize the extraction of this oil , making the business convenient.
So, hurry up to make these new electricity production devices of yours, Patrick ! :D :D
Sorry for all the typo
I can identify with your concerns Stephen, but not with your trepidation...I suppose I have sensed the materiality of it all to be a house of cards and expect the other foot to fall with a large scale change altering the status quo our parents relied on and which idealism we were raised with. We are here to experience that change at ground zero, so Celeste, I too, will stock up on canned coffee, but as for the rest, I'm here for the ride!
I gave up regular coffee drinking some time ago and now mostly drink US produced herbal tea (like peppermint) I'd better stock up on green, black and oolong teas, however. Those come from India, Kenya and China.
I recently found out that there is a small tea grower in the state next to me. They've only been in business for a few years, so it's possible for us to grow tea.
Stephen, Your reply left me in a state of panic. No coffee! Im not ready for this change? I realize this living local thing had been predicted, but when is this supposed to happen? I'm going to start hoarding coffee and chocolate .
Sell Starbucks stock also.
Note to self;
Add to my To Do List:
- research vanilla chai tea production
- befriend more farmers y gardeners
- learn how to milk cows y goats; &
- study anatomy texts of livestock with primary focus on male vs female
Concerning the drugs issue, I'm 100% agree with the Committe proposal
You're in the minority, as am I.
Absolutely agree, too. The Committee esp nailed it with the 'acceptance and belonging' element as far as sustained recovery/rehabilitation goes. Dr. Gabor Mate (sp?) has consistently vocally proposed his theory that more than just an addiction problem of abuse of substances, it's a CONNECTION problem that is the root of all addictions.
I may have the opportunity to spend a week in Portugal in January. If so, I'll be researching, interviewing and writing an article re: their drug legalization and it's ensuing effects/outcome.
Thank you Patrick ♡♡♡
Ok, fine I will stock up on damn tea.. What is a prediction of how long until this other shoe falls?
A few years to decades. Changes in the sun's operation and electromagnetic energy reaching Earth's magnetosphere will cause the magnetic poles to wander, often abruptly and haphazardly, and over significant distances. This means a plane might lift off from Tokyo bound for San Francisco but be thrown far off course during the flight and reach North America near, say Juneau, Alaska or Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur.
This will disrupt air and sea craft navigation thus commerce.
These effects are well detailed in the books, the archives of this website.
Yea I will look back at your books. Thanks