In response to a reader question on the last post about when the coronavirus panic would drop and economic conditions improve, I cited two death statistics.
So far, the latest information is the virus has incurred about 400,000 cases and 17,500 deaths. Let's assume this covers four months, December 2019 through March 2020. Let's assume the deaths continue and do NOT reduce, in other words the same 4 month total continues for a year. 17,500 x 3 = 52,500. This would be unreported cases of people already infected who don't know it, i.e. zero symptoms or people untested with some symptoms which could be something else.
THIS ASSUMPTION is unlikely given the incubation period (2 - 15 days, mostly 7 - 10) plus the symptomatic phase of 14 - 21 days before improvement or succumbing to the effects. Typically one month from start to end.
Just a little more than ONE EIGHTH (1/8) the deaths caused by the coronavirus will have occurred, compared to the flu, under my wildly aggressive and improbable assumption about infection and death rates.
The similarities between the influenza and coronavirus mean flu deaths will drop; potential victims will have passed on already. The serious cases of coronavirus seem eerily similar to the flu; most vulnerable to both are the elderly, people already sick with something else or folks who have existing conditions such as diabetes or respiratory illnesses. Are you now or have you ever panicked over the flu?
In the USA about half the serious motor vehicle fatalities ("road deaths") involve an impaired driver, almost always alcohol. This is the pattern in almost every country. Essentially three things can be banned:
Do you or have you ever panicked at the sight of cars? A bar or liquor store? Humans in the vicinity of either or both?
Let's add the most discussed cause of death, firearms. About 250,000 worldwide deaths per year. Do you panic seeing a gun? Yes and no, it depends WHO and what they're doing.
A large portion of firearms murders involve criminals who become victims of other criminals, which is absolutely the case in North America (Mexico, Canada and the USA) and probably elsewhere, also. The solution is: avoid criminal activity & involvement. Do you generally panic from day to day and avoid places because of guns in the USA? The answer is, almost nobody.
Coronavirus will kill a good deal less people in the USA this year than murderers using guns.
The Committee advises: "Compare current reactions to causes and consider your observations when upcoming changes manifest."
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